Tuesday, March 07, 2006

The Next Axis of Evil US and India!!

It’s hard to see a problem with closer ties between the world’s most powerful democracy, the US, and India, the world’s most populous democracy. But some people, it would seem are just will always see the glass as half empty. Gwynne Dwyer an independent journalist from Britain, writing an editorial in Monday's San Diego Union-Tribune, took the Bush administration and the pentagon to task for developing closer military ties with India.

He has two problems with this move. One that it has been conducted in secret, two that it will “alarm” the Chinese. He goes as far as to call military cooperation between the world’s two largest democracies irresponsible. Irresponsible to end decades of antipathy. Irresponsible for us to balance the growth of Chinese power in Asia. Apparently Gwynne Dwyer is an unrepentant Maoist. His use of the word irresponsible is followed by the assertion that there is no evidence of Chinese designs in South Asia. Therefore we, and the Indians are paranoid.

Of course the Chinese are on a decades long campaign to modernize their militaries effectiveness. They have military ties with N. Korea, which threatens US and S. Korean security. They have historic ties with Pakistan, and may have assisted Pakistan with their nuclear program. But balancing rising Chinese power is irresponsible.
For most of history the reaction of nation states to rising powers has been to balance the new power with alliances. When balance of power succeeds you have the Concert of Europe, the hundred years of mostly peaceful relations in 19th century Europe. When it fails you have WWI.

Today the world is uni-polar. The US is the world’s only superpower exercising hegemonic power. Even today friends and foes alike seek to balance America’s strengths, militarily, politically and economically as they find it necessary and appropriate. This explains Europe’s resistance to many current American policies.

But US hegemony atop this pyramid will not last forever. The future can take many paths. Multi-polar, bi-polar, or uni-polar outcomes are possible. Whichever one of these occurs, the Chinese will be a pole. A uni-polar world with a Chinese hegemon is not likely to be one that’s likely to be pleasant .

But Mr. Gwynne seems to think that US hegemony, evil as he finds it, will last forever. And hey a Chinese dominated world wouldn’t be that bad would it? No and it’s irresponsible to even think about preparing for Chinese ascendancy in Asia. Shame on Bush. Shame on the Indians. Leave those nice Chinese Authoritarians and their sky-rocketing military budgets alone.

Thanks To Mudville as always

The Defense of Mario Lozano